Isaiah Hole
August 14, 2024 1:55 am ET
The 2024 season is just over two weeks away, and we will soon learn more about what the Michigan Wolverines are actually capable of as they try to defend their national championship.
With new head coach Sherrone Moore, new faces expected to step up and a much more difficult schedule than we’ve seen in recent years, it will be interesting to see how Michigan fares.
Speaking of the schedule, ESPN has finally released its matchup predictor for every game in college football. As expected, Michigan is expected to win more games than not, despite some uncertainty. Here is how ESPN predicts the Wolverines chances in all 12 regular-season games in 2024.
Week 1: Fresno State Bulldogs
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Michigan chances to win: 89.2%
Jeff Tedford unexpectedly stepped down during the summer, which may or may not take away the offensive prowess of Fresno State. Still, with it being a season opener, you never really know what you’re going to get from either team. It should be an exciting start for the Wolverines, and we should learn a lot about what Michigan is all about.
Week 2: Texas Longhorns
Brett Patzke-USA TODAY Sports
Michigan chances to win: 34.9%
This assuredly will be an early test for Michigan, considering Texas is also coming off a playoff run. Quinn Ewers is formidable at quarterback and has weapons at receiver. The Longhorns offensive line is considered to be elite. However, UT has lost its top two running backs for the season, and it is rebuilding on the defensive side. With this being a home game, don’t be surprised if Michigan ends up stealing one no one thinks it can win.
Week 3: Arkansas State Red Wolves
Joseph Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports
Michigan chances to win: 92.3%
This is the easiest game on the schedule, and ESPN agrees. However, Arkansas State has been a thorn in teams’ sides from time to time. This game might be the last tuneup before conference play, but Michigan cannot afford to take the foot off of the gas.
Week 4: USC Trojans
Photo: Isaiah Hole
Michigan chances to win: 65.7%
It’s a much different Big Ten opener than we’ve ever seen before. The team that Michigan often hoped to see in the Rose Bowl comes to Ann Arbor to open conference play. Lincoln Riley knows offense and certainly hopes Miller Moss is the answer at quarterback now that Caleb Williams has moved on to the NFL. But defensively, this team need a lot of work.
Week 5: Minnesota Golden Gophers
Photo: Isaiah Hole
Michigan chances to win: 84.4%
Unless Minnesota finds some kind of offense and rekindles the types of performances it delivered when Tanner Morgan was at quarterback, it will have to rely almost exclusively on its defense. It sometimes has had a stellar run game, but the past few years, even with Morgan, it has been one-dimensional.
Week 6: at Washington Huskies
Photo: Isaiah Hole
Michigan chances to win: 60.7%
This is a difficult team to figure out. With Jedd Fisch taking over the reins, and with so many different faces in Seattle, who knows how quickly Washington will rekindle the glory of last year. This is Michigan’s first road game and you never know how it will perform in hostile territory. The past few years have been advantageous for the Wolverines, but in the not too distant past this is the type of game Michigan would typically lose.
Week 8: at Illinois Fighting Illini
Photo: Isaiah Hole
Michigan chances to win: 79.6%
Bret Bielema has long had tough teams, and the Illini are no exception. Though last year was a step back, you can expect that this game is terrible on his calendar. This one is no gimme, especially considering that it’s on the road.
Week 9: Michigan State Spartans
Photo: Isaiah Hole
Michigan chances to win: 86.7%
MSU has a new head coach, Jonathan Smith, and there’s no telling with the roster he has exactly what the Spartans are going to look like. It doesn’t look good on paper, and Michigan should win big for a third straight year but you never know a rivalry game. After all, Mel Tucker managed to win his first two games when no one thought that was possible.
Week 10: Oregon Ducks
Photo: Isaiah Hole
Michigan chances to win: 34.5%
To us, this is the most difficult game on the schedule, even though it is at home. Oregon is absolutely loaded on every front. Quarterback Dillon Gabriel has shown he’s one of the best in the country, and he goes to a team with a ton of firepower, solid line play and everything the Ducks need to win big. Yet, big-time success has eluded Oregon. And it is a cross-country trip in the middle of the season.
Week 11: at Indiana Hoosiers
Photo: Isaiah Hole
Michigan chances to win: 83.1%
Curt Cignetti, the new head coach of the Hoosiers, certainly talks a big game. Indiana has had a wave of incoming transfers, and it’s difficult to discern exactly what IU will look like in 2024. Still, Michigan hasn’t lost to Indiana since 1986, outside of the 2020 COVID-19 season debacle.
Week 13: Northwestern Wildcats
Photo: Isaiah Hole
Michigan chances to win: 85.4%
Though Northwestern is not nearly as formidable as it once was, don’t underestimate David Braun‘s team. He’s managed to figure things out in a hurry, and the Wolverines will certainly be looking forward to the next week.
Week 14: at Ohio State Buckeyes
Photo: Isaiah Hole
Michigan chances to win: 25.8%
It’s worth noting Michigan has often been listed as massive underdogs to the Buckeyes according to ESPN in the preseason. Given the last three years, we certainly think the Wolverines have a much better chance than ESPN predicts. Ohio State hasn’t exactly fixed its offensive line and Michigan’s biggest strength is the defensive front. Likewise, if Michigan still has a strong offensive line and can figure out the quarterback. This could be yet another upset in the making.
